EM 503 - FORECASTING METHODS (Métodos de Previsão) Forecasting and decision making: the role of forecasting methods (FM) in decision making processes. Classification of FMs. Quantitative methods: time series and causal methods. Qualitative methods. Underlying assumptions and applicability conditions. The selection of FMs. Time series analysis: introduction. Regression (review of concepts studied in Statistics). Classical decomposition. Exponential smoothing. Box-Jenkins models. Causal models: regression models. An application to medium term commodity price forecasting: Kingsman's price behaviour model. Reference to simultaneous equation models and to different estimation methods. Qualitative forecasting methods: the role of qualitative methods. Exploratory methods: trend extrapolation, time independent technological comparisons, morphological analysis, Delphi method. Normative methods: Relevance trees (PATTERN method), Delphi method. Excel worksheets are used to construct the models applied to solve the in class exercises and the two cases proposed to evaluation. <<<<<<<<<<  BACK  <<<<<<<<<<